50,000 LCS 2017 SPRING PLAYOFFS – Postmortem


In my last blog post,  I ran 50,000 monte-carlo simulations of all the possible outcomes for the Spring 2017 NALCS playoffs. For those of you who are not familiar with NALCS and LoL, League of Legends (LoL) is an online competitive video game that draws massive attention. The NALCS is the professional LoL series in North America. Every spring, after the spring season games are done, 6 teams enter playoffs.  These teams compete in best of 5 matches, single elimination.

Using a modified elo calculation, I ranked all the teams entering the spring playoffs based on their past performance. With their elo “ranks”, I pit each team against each other 50,000 times and recorded the final brackets. I then compiled all these brackets and calculated percentages of winning for each team. My simulation yielded the following bracket:


My simulations predicted that first round Phoenix1 would decisively win over Dignitas and Counter Logic Gaming would have a hard fought win over Flyquest. Round two would have Team SoloMid would trounce anyone who made it past the first round, Cloud9 would treat their opponents similarly. Third place would be very dependent on the losers of round 2, but Pheonix1  seems to be a solid choice for third place. Last for the finals of the playoffs, Team SoloMid should take the crown, but not without a fight from Cloud9. So if we were betting on the trifecta, Third place: Phoenix, Second place: Cloud9, and Champion: Team SoloMid.

Now for the results.

Screen Shot 2017-08-20 at 6.52.12 PM

If I was a betting man, I could’ve won some money.  Good news: I predicted the trifecta, bad news: we got one wrong. Luckily for us, the one we got wrong was an incredibly tight match up and it went to game 5.

Things we got right: Phoenix 1 demolished Team Dignitas 3-0. Team SoloMid trounced FlyQuest 3-0 as well. Cloud 9 also did very well against Phoenix 1 winning 3-0. The third place match was quite tight, but Phoenix1 took it in game 5. From my predictions, I had Phoenix1 taking third, but I did not believe it would be so close. The final also went to game 5. Team SoloMid had a slight edge, enough to take the championship in the end.

Things we got wrong: CLG vs FlyQuest. I had CLG narrowly winning this game, unfortunately FlyQuest came ahead.  I predicted this match up to be very close. My prediction was looking good at the beginning of the series. CLG took the first two games, but FlyQuest rallied and took the last 3 in a row.

Overall I believe the simulations were a success. 5/6 games predicted correctly with the trifecta.

Stay tuned for more esports predictions.


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